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The Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics collide in a big-time Game 5 battle on Thursday evening. The Heat are one win away from getting back to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2020. Miami has also won both games at TD Garden to kick off the 2023 Eastern Conference finals. The Celtics are averaging 114.2 points per game, while Miami is putting up 113.8 points per contest. Gabe Vincent (ankle) is out for Miami.

The game from TD Garden in Boston will tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET. Boston is an 8.5-point favorite in the latest Celtics vs. Heat odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 215. Before making any Heat vs. Celtics picks, make sure you check out what proven SportsLine NBA expert Matthew Severance has to say.

Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over his past 160 NBA picks, he is 105-54-1 against the spread, returning $3,650 for $100 players. 

Now, Severance has set its sights on Heat vs. Celtics and just locked in his picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see Severance's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Heat:

  • Heat vs. Celtics: Celtics -8.5
  • Heat vs. Celtics over/under: 215 points  
  • Heat vs. Celtics money line: Miami +250, Boston -320
  • MIA: Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss 
  • BOS: Celtics are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 Thursday games 
  • Heat vs. Celtics picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game| Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat

Why the Heat can cover

Forward Caleb Martin has been a reliable scoring threat off the bench. Martin owns a nice jumper on the outside and thrives in transition. The Nevada product is fourth on the team in points (12.9) this postseason, with 4.9 rebounds and making 41% of his 3-point attempts. He's dropped at least 15 points in four straight games, and in Game 4, Martin finished with 16 points and four boards.

Guard Duncan Robinson is another sharpshooter in the second unit for Miami. Robinson has a quick release, is constantly moving without the ball, and he dropped 15-plus points in two of his last three outings. In Game 3, Robinson totaled 22 points, four assists, and went 5-of-7 from downtown. Additionally, guard Kyle Lowry is a savvy veteran playmaker. Lowry has dished out at least five assists in three straight matchups. See which team to pick here.

Why the Celtics can cover

Guard Jaylen Brown utilizes his athleticism and quickness to get downhill in a hurry. Brown has the strength to absorb contact in the lane and finish at the rim. The California product also plays superb defense on the perimeter. Brown ranks second on the team in points (22.8) with 5.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game in the postseason. In his last contest, he totaled 17 points, four boards, and four assists.

Guard Marcus Smart always brings tremendous energy on both sides of the floor. Smart is a lights-out defender with amazing instincts and recovery ability. The Oklahoma State product is averaging 14.4 points, 1.1 steals and a team-high 5.5 assists per contest in the playoffs. In Game 4, Smart totaled 11 points, six assists, and two steals. See which team to pick here.

How to make Heat vs. Celtics picks

Severance is leaning Over on the point total, and he has identified a critical X-factor he says makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can only find out what it is, and see which side of the Heat vs. Celtics spread to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Heat vs. Celtics, and what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Celtics spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the expert who has returned over $3,650 to $100 players over his last 160 NBA picks, and find out.